To quote: "As of today, (April 9) there are 401 reported Covid-19 deaths in Sweden. The really good news is that in Sweden’s ICU (intensive care unit) census, which is updated every 30 minutes nationwide, admissions to every ICU in the country are flat or declining, and they have been for a week. As of this writing (based on currently available data), most of Sweden’s ICU cases today are elderly, and 77 percent have underlying conditions such as heart disease, respiratory disease, kidney disease and diabetes. Moreover, there hasn’t been a single pediatric ICU case or death in Sweden — so much for the benefits of shutting down schools everywhere else. There are only 25 Covid-19 ICU admissions among all Swedes under the age of 30. Sweden is developing herd immunity by refusing to panic. By not requiring social isolation, Sweden’s young people spread the virus, mostly asymptomatically, as is supposed to happen in a normal flu season. They will generate protective antibodies that make it harder and harder for the Wuhan virus to reach and infect the frail and elderly who have serious underlying conditions. Compare that with the situation in Switzerland, a similar small European country, which has 8.5 million people. Switzerland is practicing strict social isolation. Yet Switzerland reports 715 cumulative Wuhan-virus deaths as of today, for a death rate nearly double the number in Sweden. What about Norway, another Nordic country that shares a 1,000-mile open border with Sweden, with a language and culture very similar to Sweden’s? Norway (population 5.4 million) has fewer reported Covid-19 deaths (71) than Sweden but a substantially higher rate of coronavirus ICU admissions. Nature’s got this one, folks. We’ve been coping with new viruses for untold generations. The best way is to allow the young and healthy — those for whom the virus is rarely fatal — to develop antibodies and herd immunity to protect the frail and sick. As time passes, it will become clearer that social-isolation measures like those in Switzerland and Norway accomplish very little in terms of reducing fatalities or disease, though they crater local and national economies — increasing misery, pain, death and disease from other causes as people’s lives are upended and futures are destroyed.”Makabenta had himself convinced that herd immunity is the key. He then urged that the Philippines should follow Sweden's example. This was his message for Easter.
Celebrate Easter instead In the Philippines, our most sensible course now is to quietly reverse course on the ECQ. It makes no sense to prolong the people’s isolation and the country’s economic pain. We need strategic foresight in our battle plan versus the pandemic. We will do better by adopting Sweden’s nuanced approach and gradually return our lives to normalcy. In one to two months, we could flatten the curve in virus infections and fatalities. Covid-19 might even go away, or the vaccine will finally arrive. - End of Quote
Let us see now if Yen can still sell his skewed analysis by swallowing as a whole the analysis of National Review Magazine in its April 6, 2020 article entitled “Has Sweden found the right solution to the coronavirus?” It was written by John Fund, columnist of the magazine, and Joel Hay, a professor of pharmaceutical economics and policy. According to Makabenta, "Their analysis is powerful, persuasive and incontrovertible." He further wrote in Manila Times in his column April 9, "I reprint the article complete below, because it is precious indeed."
But what's wrong with Yen Makabenta's Data?
Below are April 9 and April 19 data as our basis of comparison.
Q1: Is the analysis of Prof. Joel Hay and John Fund in Sweden's model really that powerful, persuasive and indeed, inconvertible?
Q2: If it does, how long will it hold water for Sweden's case?
Just looking at the two data below makes me think Makabenta is deadly wrong in assuming that Sweden's model will perfectly work for the Philippines more than a month after a lockdown was implemented in the country. Sweden, based on the data, should not be very confident that it is flattening the curve. While herd immunity is a novel idea, that paradigm should be coupled with strict quarantine measures especially so that pandemic cases are still rising.
Q1: Is the analysis of Prof. Joel Hay and John Fund in Sweden's model really that powerful, persuasive and indeed, inconvertible?
Q2: If it does, how long will it hold water for Sweden's case?
Just looking at the two data below makes me think Makabenta is deadly wrong in assuming that Sweden's model will perfectly work for the Philippines more than a month after a lockdown was implemented in the country. Sweden, based on the data, should not be very confident that it is flattening the curve. While herd immunity is a novel idea, that paradigm should be coupled with strict quarantine measures especially so that pandemic cases are still rising.
The dream of flattening the pandemic curve is not far from over yet. Perhaps, Makabenta needed to seek for another model that does not look so deceptive. How about taking the case of Thailand or Vietnam? Wanna bet? Let us take the case of Vietnam for instance.
According to Michael Sullivan who wrote on April 16 the article, "
In Vietnam, There Have Been Fewer Than 300 COVID-19 Cases And No Deaths. Here's Why,"
"Vietnam shares a border with China, yet it has reported no deaths from COVID-19 and just 268 confirmed cases, when other Southeast Asian nations are reporting thousands. Experts say experience dealing with prior pandemics, early implementation of aggressive social distancing policies, strong action from political leaders and the muscle of a one-party authoritarian state have helped Vietnam"
April 9 COVID-19 DATA
SWEDEN: 687 COVID deaths; 8.4K confirmed cases
SWITZERLAND: 715 COVID deaths; 22.7 K confirmed cases
NORWAY: 166 COVID deaths; 6.1K confirmed cases
PHILIPPINES: 203 COVID deaths; 4.1K confirmed cases
So a little over a week after, what happened Mr. Makabenta? Your persuasion that the Duterte administration should adopt Sweden's approach is not simply going to work because for one thing, there is no such thing as extreme culture of individualism that naturally will socially distance one Filipino fellow from the other. Adding to the worst scenario of the case is that some people especially in Metropolitan Manila wantonly violate the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) protocols. So what are you talking about when you say that it makes no sense to prolong the people’s isolation and the country’s economic pain? While there is really a need for a strategic foresight in the government's battle plan versus the pandemic, adopting Sweden’s nuanced approach to gradually return the Filipino lives to normalcy can't be the option at this point in time. Philippines' case might resemble that of Brazil if it does follow Sweden's. But wait! Look at the April 19 data, the Philippines is no match to Sweden when it comes to the number of cases and number of deaths. Much more if we talk about number of deaths per million. Is Sweden really flattening the curve as claimed by Yen Makabenta of the Manila Times?
I fully disagree that lifting social distancing and Enhanced Community Quarantine measures will give the Filipino people the glory of curving virus infections and fatalities at this point in time.
Tell that one or two months from now and you might be correct. For a moment, we haven't reached the very peak of this pandemic in the Philippines yet. Not this month of April nor the next month still. How about giving the month of June a fresh start?
Low scale lockdown for the Philippines, as suggested by Makabenta, may bring back the country to its economic shape yet I don't see any flattening of the curve but a competitive rise of fatalities and number of new cases among those four countries he was trying to compare with the exception of Norway that seems to see much brighter future of flattening the curve.
For now, let us just brace ourselves which of these three countries (Switzerland, Philippines and Sweden) is racing faster to the top of the chart in terms of death and more new cases of the Corona virus infections. Sweden comes first when it comes to the number of deaths while Switzerland beams with insult for its almost doubled confirmed cases as compared to that of Sweden. The Philippines maybe tailing behind Sweden and Switzerland but who knows? I can't trust the herd mentality of urban Filipino of Metro Manila much more if you loosen the rein of the quarantine measures this early.
There's no such thing as inconvertible analysis at this point in time Mr. Makabenta in as far as Sweden's approach is concerned. I call that as "Lenism" in reference to the Vice President of the Philippines who earned the monicker of being a boba analyst of the Philippine situation. Sweden is just competing with Switzerland in terms of fatalities and before the Philippines and Norway reach almost a thousand deaths, guess what? Sweden might even upstage Switzerland by racing to the top of the chart and would become another Brazil COVID infested in the making. As of WHO's latest count Brazil inks 33,682 confirmed cases and 2,141 deaths while John Hopkins' CCSE Covid tracker has a more updated report with a much higher figure of 38,654 confirmed cases and 2,462 deaths. So what's the latest count of Sweden as of this time? WHO says 13,822 confirmed cases with 1,511 deaths while CCSE in its latest report shows Sweden having gone to a mark of 14,385 cases and 1,540 deaths.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Lenism
There's no such thing as inconvertible analysis at this point in time Mr. Makabenta in as far as Sweden's approach is concerned. I call that as "Lenism" in reference to the Vice President of the Philippines who earned the monicker of being a boba analyst of the Philippine situation. Sweden is just competing with Switzerland in terms of fatalities and before the Philippines and Norway reach almost a thousand deaths, guess what? Sweden might even upstage Switzerland by racing to the top of the chart and would become another Brazil COVID infested in the making. As of WHO's latest count Brazil inks 33,682 confirmed cases and 2,141 deaths while John Hopkins' CCSE Covid tracker has a more updated report with a much higher figure of 38,654 confirmed cases and 2,462 deaths. So what's the latest count of Sweden as of this time? WHO says 13,822 confirmed cases with 1,511 deaths while CCSE in its latest report shows Sweden having gone to a mark of 14,385 cases and 1,540 deaths.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Lenism
The week after as of this writing, I might be hearing that Sweden is just no different from the case of Brazil whose president heavily relied on the immunity of the young Brazilians. The latest news I heard, MORNING BRIEF says
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